Sunday, May 15, 2011

The Long March Of Democracy

During the recent Blogger outage, a whole bunch of my blog posts got lost. And then all of them came back except this one at my Barackface blog. Since it had already been cross published at Technorati, I still had a copy.

Just One More Missing Blog Post
Miracle: The Lost Blog Posts Are Back
Lost A Whole Bunch Of Blog Posts
And Blogger Is Back

The Long March Of Democracy

The military action in Libya has absolutely been the right move. And a limited military action in Syria might be called for soon enough, something that is a week max. But military action is not an option when the tide of democracy finally hits Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia, and China.

But military action is very much an option in the African countries. If a dictator anywhere in Africa uses full force against peaceful protesters, you give an ultimatum, you get UN authorization, and you take out the command and control structure, and that includes the top guy. But if they don't unleash animal brutality, instead they enter into peaceful negotiations, if they seek out political outlets, then military action can be avoided. But even in those instances the full non military might has to be put to the goal of getting the dictator out. That is the only acceptable outcome to any democracy movement. People do not get off the streets unless the dictator bows out.

Doing right in Libya and Syria is important. Unless democracy wins in those two countries, the democracy flames will not rise in Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Since there are no military options on the table for Saudi Arabi and Iran, we can hope and pray there will be massive street action. An agitated people willing to pour into every street in the capital city, a people willing to march onto the presidential palace can bring absolutely any dictator down. You have to be willing to sacrifice a few hundred lives.

Unless there is a total sweep of democracy across the Arab world and Africa, Russia is not going to wake up. And in this first phase Saudi Arabi and Iran are the only hard countries. Because there are no military options. Otherwise everywhere else aerial surgical strikes to take the top guy out if he crosses the line just might be the best option. When a killer goes on a shooting rampage at some mall, the police gun him down. Same thing.

The US Military Budget Needs To Come Down To 100 Billion From 600

This could all be done and over with in 2011, or it could spill over into 2012, and that would be just fine. The US military does not worry about Europe, because Europe is a bunch of democracies. Democracies don't go to war with each other. A total sweep of democracy across the world will allow America to do something it desperately needs get done to get rid of its budget deficit. America will then be able to vastly reduce its military budget and that is going to be a good thing.

China is tricky. Because China is not like Libya, not like Saddam's Iraq, China is not Iran, China is not even Russia. Physicists say if there is another universe, it might have different laws of physics. At some level China is politically like that. The Chinese president gets a meager salary. The Chinese president does not stay in power for life. The change of guard is pretty well done. Withing certain parameters, the Chinese Communist Party does have what might be called internal democracy. And, most important, China has lifted more people out of poverty than any power in history. They have been doing something right.

The democracy movement in China might start and conclude by asking for and getting fundamental political reform. There are amendments to the constitution so that other political parties are allowed, federalism is put into place, and human rights are guaranteed to the point Google gets to go back to China absolutely uncensored.

Sergey Brin's Is The Right Stand

But if America truly wants to see democracy in China, it has to be willing to enact total campaign finance reform in one swoop. Democracy is one person, one vote. And America does not have that democracy.

The way this democracy wave will conclude is China will become more like America and America will become more like China. America will also have to make way for a global currency. It can not be the dollar forever more.

This global wave of democracy is going to hit America's shores as well. Done right it is going to bring total campaign finance reform to the American political system.

When all is said and done, Putin is out, but the Chinese Communist Party is still in power, one among many political parties in China.
The Atlantic: Hillary Clinton: Chinese System Is Doomed, Leaders on a 'Fool's Errand': she was, as usual, fluent, comprehensive, and in total control of the details. ....... China, and its frightened reaction to the Arab Spring, came up, that she took an almost-Reaganesque turn, calling into question not just Beijing's dismal human rights record, but the future of the Chinese regime itself. ....... questioning the long-term viability of the one-party system ....... she sees the Arab Spring as the harbinger of a worldwide move toward democracy. ...... They just had a riot in Bangladesh because the government wants women to inherit equally. That's a red line, and that infringes on the rights of women, and therefore, I am against it ...... we are losing the war of ideas because we are not in the arena the way we were in the Cold War. ..... China is starting an English-speaking television network around the world, Russia is, Al Jazeera. And the BBC is cutting back on its many language services around the world. We're not competing. I just feel like we're missing an opportunity. And I'm well aware of our budget constraints and all of the difficulties we face, but now is the time — not in an arrogant way, but in a matter-of-fact experiential way. ....... power is diffuse. It is no longer the province of just governments. There's too much going on in the world today. People know too much. So we have to start dealing with people on a more direct basis. ....... the dispersal of power through information that was unimagined a decade ago, let alone 50 years ago. ....... But we don't walk away from dealing with China because we think they have a deplorable human rights record. We don't walk away from dealing with Saudi Arabia — ....... We don't have to blow. The winds are blowing. There's no stopping them. And what we have tried to do with him is to give him an alternative vision of himself and Syria's future. ....... with the Revolutionary Guard basically in charge ....... following the fall of the Berlin Wall, how Germany responded and Poland responded, you couldn't say that there was one template that fit all. ....... you can look at transitions to democracy in Latin America and in Europe — look at Spain and Portugal. There's no two that are exactly alike.
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