A Mini Bubble Burst In Three Years

Natural Selection ShampooImage via WikipediaThis is not me agreeing with Fred Wilson on the topic, but I do foresee a mini bubble burst a few years down the road. We are going through a relatively easy funding phase of what I see is going to be a boom decade.

The first mini bubble burst is that not every startup idea seeking funding is getting funded. Most are not. That is normal. So you are already starting with the natural selection process in place. Investors are not fools. They go in with high hopes. They do say no. All the time.

But of all the companies that are getting funded, it is inevitable not all will survive. Many will not. I don't know enough to get into more precise numbers. You could argue nobody does. But there will be weaning out. The wheat will get separated from the chaff.

Every new economic sector in history has seen a bubble, some big, some small. The biggest bubbles have been reserved for some of the most exciting new sectors. Bubbles are good things. Bubbles are the market trying to figure out what will stick, what will not stick. And there is no way to know except by trying.

Some failures just can not be avoided. The best policy is to make peace when that happens. But there are other failures that can be avoided. How do you make sure you still have your startup three years from now?

Build a real business. Focus on the fundamentals. Don't overspend. Start generating revenues and profits within a reasonable amount of time. Work hard. Maintain perspective. Don't stop taking risks. Build a great team. Be a great team. Eat right. Sleep right. Exercise. Don't ignore your relationships.

Be open to the possibility that there are many kinds of exits, most of them not big. If you can earn a living doing work you love, that is a great soft landing actually. Don't ignore that possibility while shooting for the stars.

Shoot for the stars.
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