Fred Wilson, Google, Facebook, Apple, USV

English: Apple iPad Event
English: Apple iPad Event (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Fred seems to have taken some flak for his comment that in 2020, Google and Facebook will be among the three biggest tech companies in the world, but not Apple. When asked if one of his portfolio companies will be among the top three he said, I most certainly hope so.

I am bullish on Google. I see it becoming the first trillion dollar company in the world. Usually when companies get big, they get innovation lazy. In Google's case when they have become big they have innovated at large scales. They have tackled problems that small startups just can't because they don't have the huge resources.

I disagree with Fred on Facebook. I am not sure Facebook will be among the top three in 2020. Facebook has been a one trick wonder. They have the option to be among the three, but I have not seen it yet.

I agree with him on Apple. Apple will milk the iPhone and the iPad as much as it can, but that momentum will last only a few more years, and then funny things might start happening to its standing in the stock markets. The next sexy hardware is not coming from Apple.

As for Union Square Ventures, I don't think they have a portfolio company that will be among the top three in 2020. I would love to be proven wrong. But that is a judgment call I am making. Point be noted I am not up to date on USV. I don't have a good knowledge of their investments in the recent two years.

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