Thursday, December 06, 2012

Has Apple Peaked?

Image representing Tim Cook as depicted in Cru...
Image via CrunchBase
I think so.

The iPhone was a paradigm shift. The iPad was also a paradigm shift. But by now the Android platform is as good if not better in both those spheres, and there is no doubt as to who is the market leader. Android leads. The pace is to quicken.

And I don't see Apple coming up with the next big thing. Is it TV? I don't think so. TV is like cancer, it is not any one thing.

Tim Cook is average. The superb performance of the Apple stock for about a year after Steve Jobs' death can still be attributed to Steve Jobs. This guy was like the Kennedy of technology. The immense global media coverage of Steve Jobs and Apple after Jobs' death really helped Apple. Apple went to the masses. And the new versions of old products were already in the pipeline.

Tim Cook's real test would be if he could come up with another paradigm shifting product. I just don't see that happening. And that's okay. Not everyone can be Steve Jobs. People like him show up one or two in a generation.

The map fiasco that Apple had would never have happened under Steve Jobs. That was another tell tell sign.

I never believed Apple was on its way to becoming a trillion dollar company. On the other hand Google could end up there. But if it gets there it will have to have done so by 2020. And the clearest route to getting there is in the ISP space. Global gigabit wireless broadband supported by ads is Google's path to becoming a trillion dollar company.

Apple Drops 6.4% Due To Volatility And Uncertainty: The iPad Mini Is Out, Now What?
During the past 12 months, Apple shares have been up 42.7 percent, mostly due to two new products, the iPhone 5 and the iPad mini. With a new CEO and no new product in sight, volatility kicks in...... So the iPad mini is out. Now what? It’s hard to say what Apple’s next product will be, and especially Apple’s next breakthrough product. Steve Jobs passed away a little more than a year ago, and he still oversaw most of the products coming out today. ...... P/E ratio ... Microsoft’s is comparable to Apple’s.
Apple loses $34.9 billion in market cap in its worst trading day in 4 years, but why?
the company shed 6.43% of its value, to settle at a valuation of a mere $508 billion. ..... there could be a worst case additional 10% move to the downside. .... Digitimes. a well-respected industry publication, was reporting slower demand in the first part of next year. ..... Digitimes is suggesting a 20% q/q decline in Apple’s demand for parts and components in March. ..... something in motion tends to stay in motion unless acted upon. Heading up, Apple was a rocket, and now in the other direction it has been carrying weight
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